Real Estate Market Pulse

By Jason Waugh

Pending sales are up, mortgage rates hit a 15-month low of 6.15%, and home price growth is the slowest since 2012.

Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, the National Association of Realtors® reported that pending home sales increased 3.3% month-over-month in November and 2.6% year-over-year, reflecting renewed buyer momentum. Mortgage rates also supported demand, as the 30-year fixed rate ended 2025 at 6.15%, its lowest level of the year and well below the 6.91% average seen a year earlier. Meanwhile, the FHFA House Price Index (HPI) reported a 0.4% monthly gain in October, pushing the HPI to a new record high, although annual appreciation slowed to 1.7%, the smallest increase since 2012 and a sign of gradually improving affordability.

Below are key events from the final week of 2025 impacting our business.

January 5, 2026

PENDING HOME SALES RISE IN NOVEMBER AS LOWER RATES SPUR BUYERS.
November’s drop in mortgage rates helped pull more buyers back into the market, lifting the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index 3.3% month-over-month to 79.2 — a 2.6% annual increase and the strongest seasonally adjusted performance since early 2023. Improving affordability (easing rates, wages outpacing home price-growth) and expanded inventory compared to last year are encouraging buyers to re-engage. All four U.S. regions posted monthly and annual gains; the West led with a 9.2% monthly jump, followed by the South (2.4%), Northeast (1.8%), and Midwest (1.3%). Year over year, the South recorded the largest increase at 3.3%, while the Northeast saw a 1.8% rise. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →

Why this Matters: November’s decline in mortgage rates marks a meaningful shift for consumers who have been waiting for the right moment to make a move. This momentum reflects several encouraging trends. Affordability is improving as lower rates and wages rising faster than home prices give buyers more purchasing power than they have had in months. At the same time, inventory levels are higher than they were a year ago, offering more options and easing some of the competitive pressure that has shaped recent years. For anyone considering a move in 2026, these developments point to a market that is steadily becoming more accessible, one where opportunity is beginning to align with readiness.

MORTGAGE RATES CLOSE OUT 2025 AT 15-MONTH LOW.
Mortgage rates delivered a dose of holiday optimism this week, slipping to their lowest levels of the year and positioning 2026 to begin with more favorable borrowing conditions than those seen at the start of 2025. The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.15%, according to Freddie Mac, continuing several weeks of stability around the low-6% range. Rates remain well below where they stood a year ago, when the 30-year rate averaged 6.91% and later surged past 7% in mid-January. The last time rates were lower than this week’s reading was in early October 2024. Full story from REAL ESTATE NEWS→

Why this Matters: For consumers, this shift carries real significance. Lower rates can increase purchasing power, reduce monthly payments, and open the door for buyers who may have stepped back during the higher rate environment of the past two years. Greater stability also helps buyers plan with more confidence, knowing that borrowing costs are no longer swinging sharply from week to week. As 2026 gets underway, these conditions suggest a market that is becoming more approachable for those ready to make a move.

HOME PRICES ROSE AT SLOWEST PACE SINCE 2012 IN OCTOBER.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home prices were up 1.7% in October — the slowest annual gain since March 2012, when the market was emerging from the post-financial crisis downturn. Overall, today’s price growth is a fraction of the rapid increases seen during and immediately after the pandemic, when remote work fueled both demand and unprecedented annual gains. Full story from REUTERS →

Why this Matters: With prices rising at the slowest annual pace in more than thirteen years, affordability is beginning to improve in a market that has been challenging for many buyers. For consumers, this cooling trend means that prices are no longer racing ahead of incomes, giving buyers a better chance to keep pace. It also signals that the market is finding a healthier balance after years of intense competition. Regional differences remain, but the broader picture is one of gradual easing. Even a small monthly increase in October, following a slight decline in September, reflects a market that is stabilizing rather than surging.

THE BOTTOM LINE:
As 2026 begins, the housing market is showing signs of renewed momentum. Affordability has improved for eight consecutive months, driven by easing mortgage rates, gradual cooling in home price growth, and income growth outpacing home price appreciation. Pending home sales have strengthened for four straight months, mortgage rates have settled at their lowest level in more than a year, and annual price appreciation has slowed to its weakest pace since 2012 — all of which are creating a more balanced environment for buyers who have spent the past two years navigating high costs and limited options. Together, these trends point to a market that is stabilizing, offering more choices, and becoming increasingly accessible. For anyone considering a move in the coming year, these shifts point to a landscape where patience and preparation may finally be met with opportunity.

Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.