RE Market Pulse

Sept 2, 2025 by Jason Waugh
A look into what is shaping the real estate market this week based on news headlines.

Every week, I look at the shifts shaping the market — what’s changing, where momentum is building, and what sales professionals need to keep in focus. Last week, mortgage rates declined to their lowest level in 10 months, contract activity was mixed, builders leaned on buyer incentives amid rising inventory, and inflation ticked up in line with expectations.

This week, all eyes will be on Friday’s Jobs report, a key data point the Federal Reserve will closely evaluate as it prepares for its federal funds rate decision at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17.

Here’s what stood out to me:

MORTGAGE RATES HIT A 10-MONTH LOW.
Average mortgage rates in August continued their steady decline and are now at their lowest level since November 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.59% in August, 13 basis points (bps) lower than July. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is higher by 9 bps, while the 15-year rate is 3 bps higher. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.29% in August – an 8 bps decrease from the previous month. Rates moved unevenly throughout the month, rising based on inflation outcomes before ultimately falling based on Fed signals of possible rate cuts. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →

Why this Matters: A series of modest rate declines can significantly shift market sentiment on both sides of the transaction. When mortgage rates drift lower over consecutive weeks, buyers voluntarily on the sideline often re-enter the market, and would-be sellers pay closer attention to their next mortgage payment. This environment presents a strategic opportunity to revisit preapprovals, update payment scenarios, and proactively engage buyers and sellers who may be nearing readiness.

PENDING HOME SALES DIP 0.4% IN JULY.
Pending home sales decreased by 0.4% in July from the prior month but rose 0.7% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. Regional figures were down in the Northeast and West, flat in the South, and up in the West month-over-month, though the Midwest and South did see year-over-year gains. Full story from NAR →

Why this Matters: Contract activity often trails buyer intent. Serious buyers typically begin their decision-making process well before entering into a contract, and an uptick in mortgage applications signals emerging opportunities in the market. This is an ideal time to refine pricing strategies with sellers and set clear expectations around timelines to ensure qualified buyers remain engaged and don’t lose momentum.

NEW HOME SALES FLAT AS AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS PERSIST.
Sales of newly-built single-family homes edged 0.6% lower in July – and down 8.2% year-over-year – to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New single-family home inventory held relatively steady month-over-month but is 7.3% higher than it was a year ago, with 499,000 residences marketed for sale as of July. Total months’ supply – the combination of current new and resale single-family inventory – now stands at 5.2, per the National Association of Home Builders. This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →

Why this Matters: To navigate rising inventory levels, builders are increasingly utilizing buyer incentives. According to a report from the NAHB, 66% of builders offered discounts or other incentives in August, the highest level in five years. This presents a compelling opportunity for new-construction buyers: approach buyer consultations with a “menu mindset,” incorporating options such as rate buydowns, settlement-cost credits, and upgrade packages. Evaluate these incentives based on total monthly cost rather than focusing solely on the sales price to help buyers make more informed decisions.

CORE INFLATION ROSE 2.9% IN JULY.
The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, rose a seasonally adjusted 2.9% year-over-year, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. That’s in line with expectations, but the highest annual rate since February. The all-items index (which includes the more volatile gas and groceries figures) also hit the consensus outlook, showing the annual rate at 2.6%. The Fed uses the PCE price index as its primary forecasting tool, though all eyes are on Friday’s jobs report to see if the labor market looks like a bigger risk than inflation. Full story from CNBC →

Why this Matters: Macroeconomic indicators continue to shape the direction of mortgage rates. If Friday’s jobs report confirms a cooling labor market, it could exert downward pressure on bond yields – and by extension, mortgage rates. Now is the time to be proactive. Establish contingency plans with clients: for example, if the jobs data comes in weaker than expected and rates decline, consider locking in; if not, pivot to negotiating concessions. Position yourself as a steady, informed advisor, translating market headlines into actionable strategies that keep clients aligned with their goals.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Markets rarely move in a straight line, but your approach can. Re-engage your pipeline with purpose, guide sellers in pricing with precision, and support buyers through scenario planning that reflects the full scope of current market dynamics. The objective is calm, confident execution. Show up informed, prepared, and ready to lead every conversation with clarity and strategic insight.