RE Market Pulse

Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, we saw new home sales exceed expectations, existing home sales record another month of year-over-year growth, and Fannie Mae forecasted near double digit home sales growth and sub 6.0%-mortgage rates by the end of 2026. Below are key events from the fourth week of September impacting our business.

September 29, 2025

EXISTING HOME SALES SHOW YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH AGAIN. Existing home sales posted a 1.8% year-over-year gain in August — the second consecutive month of annual growth — as mortgage rates have remained below 6.64% for the same period. Purchase applications just had their best eight weeks of the year, which typically reflects in the sales data 30-90 days later: a sign that we may see continued growth through the end of this year. The growth of inventory year-over-year has created a more balanced market, though the pace of growth has slowed since mid-June, and price growth has cooled to 2.2% year-over-year.  Full Story on HousingWire →

• Why this Matters: Last year, the fourth quarter proved to be the most active period in the housing market, largely fueled by declining mortgage rates during Q3. Current existing home sales data indicate a similar pattern is unfolding this year. As we enter the final stretch of the calendar year, both buyers and sellers are demonstrating heightened motivation. Their willingness to engage despite seasonal changes such as academic calendars, adverse weather conditions, and holiday obligations reflects a strong commitment to transact. Real estate professionals should remain attuned to these drivers and potential barriers. By understanding the urgency and constraints clients face, you can more effectively guide buyers through competitive conditions and collaborate with sellers to craft timely, market-responsive listing strategies.

NEW HOME SALES SOAR 20% IN AUGUST TO A THREE-YEAR HIGH. Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August to the highest level since January 2022, and the largest one-month gain since August 2022.  Sales were up 15.4% from a year ago. Economists flagged volatility and large margins of error in the data; independent builder surveys show smaller gains of around 6% year-over-year. Simultaneously, strong sales took inventory down to a 7.4-month supply in August from a nine-month supply in July, a nearly 18% drop. Full Story on CNBC →

• Why this Matters: While month-over-month data may exhibit volatility, the overall trajectory of market trends remains a critical indicator and one that merits close attention. To reinforce your market perspective, tap into real-time intelligence from local builders to validate what’s gaining traction in your market. Builders remain one of the most dependable outlets for tight resale supply. Their offerings such as spec homes, quick move-in opportunities, and targeted buyer incentives can be strategically positioned to address affordability challenges and expand viable options for your clients.

HOME SALES TO JUMP NEARLY 10% IN 2026, FORECASTERS SAY. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group now expects total home sales (new and existing) to increase by 9.2% by year-end 2026 compared to year-end 2025. Existing home sales alone are expected to rise by 9.6% over the same time period, relative to the end of 2025.  In parallel, the group anticipates a mortgage rate of 6.4% by the close of 2025, followed by a further decrease to 5.9% by the end of 2026. Full Story on Real Estate News →

• Why this Matters: While forecasts alone don’t close transactions, they do inform strategic planning. Now is the time to reinforce pipeline discipline and prepare for a more navigable market landscape. Focus on nurturing long-lead buyers with consistent engagement and education. Equip prospective sellers with pricing strategies that reflect tempered appreciation trends. Above all, position yourself as a trusted advisor providing clarity, confidence, and continuity as affordability gradually improves. Proactive guidance today lays the foundation for sustained success tomorrow.

THE BOTTOM LINE: With existing-home sales showing greater stability, new-home activity gaining traction, and medium-term affordability trends improving, the current environment presents actionable opportunities. Now is the time to stay closely connected with your network, proactively communicate market shifts and their implications, and reinforce your role as a trusted advisor. By interpreting headlines through a strategic lens, you position yourself as a calm, knowledgeable professional who helps clients make informed decisions in a dynamic landscape.

Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.